Classified event engine Macro evidence system matching 40 years of market precedents 314,626 studies measured
The classified event archive

News moves Markets,
so we Measured it.

We analysed 314,626 historical events spanning 40 years. Analyse how asset classes reacted under stress, policy shocks, and structural shifts. No predictions. Just cold, empirical evidence.

Fig. 01 Matched events, overlaid
−10 t₀ +10 +20 +30 DAYS
Every faint line is one historical event, lined up at the moment its news broke. The dark line is the middle of all of them. Nothing here forecasts — it's what actually happened, many times.
Fig. 01 Aug 1990 · Iraq invades Kuwait · Brent
−10 t₀ +10 +20 +30 DAYS +11.6% NEXT SESSION
One study of 314,626: the day war broke out, and what oil actually did next. Every event in the archive is measured exactly like this.
Fig. 01 One event, one answer
The news

"Iraq invades Kuwait."

Aug 2 1990
The price

Brent +11.6%

Next session
The news and the price, joined event by event — 314,626 times, back to 1984.
Fig. 01 After the news breaks
−10 t₀ +10 +20 +30 DAYS
The typical path of prices in the 30 days after a shock — measured across thousands of past events, not predicted.
Archive range
1984 – 2026
Studies classified
314,626
Joined datasets
News × Price
Headline matching technology

Analyse live news against forty years of archives.

Our semantic pattern-matching model extracts the logical blueprint of today's breaking alerts and surfaces the most statistically correlated historical events.

Live disruptive headline

"Suez Canal Shipping Transit Restricted due to Regional Blockade"

94% correlation
Historical precedent analog
1984 Red Sea Mining Crisis
CLASS · GEOPOLITICAL — CORRIDOR BLOCK
Live disruptive headline

"Federal Reserve Enacts Unscheduled 50bps Emergency Rate Reduction"

89% correlation
Historical precedent analog
2001 Tech Crash Response
CLASS · MONETARY — EMERGENCY EASING
Live disruptive headline

"Major Petro-Exporter Announces Sudden Export Quota Cutback"

91% correlation
Historical precedent analog
2011 Libyan Oil Production Halt
CLASS · RESOURCE — SUPPLY SHOCK
Ontology & depth

The Classified Event Archive

Veille catalogues occurrences according to strict structural profiles, ensuring metadata is comparable over forty years.

Explore complete archive
Taxonomy branch Indexed volume Analytical baseline
Geopolitical 11,240 events Embargoes, conflicts, territorial shifts, trade blockades
Monetary Policy 9,850 events Emergency rate changes, quantitative adjustments, forward-guidance shocks
Regulatory & Law 8,340 events Anti-trust filings, industrial nationalisation, tariff implementations
Natural & Resource 6,410 events OPEC quotas, wheat embargoes, major shipping corridor blocks
Industrial Collapse 6,056 events Sovereign debt restructuring, major conglomerate bankruptcies, exchange halts
Core value proposition

See what the market did last time something like this happened.

Don't trust narrative forecasting. Look back at equivalent market configurations across our 40-year event ontology.

"History does not repeat, but it rhymes."

By aligning 10,000+ historical macro news alerts with immediate asset pricing, we isolate exact trends and behaviors that happen when consensus fractures.

Pre-computed anomaly classifications
Taxonomy-01

Monetary Shocks

We track 1,280 Central Bank emergency decisions. Compare rate cuts, surprises, and unscheduled press conferences across historical yield curves.

Taxonomy-02

Supply Bottlenecks

Review how freight rates, shipping corridors, and raw bulk commodities pricing behaved during structural canal restrictions or military manoeuvres.

Taxonomy-03

Fiscal Cliffhangers

Empirical response curves for debt ceiling resolutions, ratings downgrades, and unexpected national infrastructure allocations.

Taxonomy-04

Commodity Embargoes

Trace modern agricultural or energy sanctions directly back to the supply disruptions of 1990, 2004, and 2011 with mapped pricing curves.

Pricing overlays

Every classified event joined to tick-by-tick asset response.

Median moves are measured against a placebo window of comparable non-event days, so a reaction only counts when it exceeds ordinary noise.

Equity indices
−1.9%
Median T+1 drawdown

Reverses within five sessions in 61% of matched geopolitical precedents.

Sovereign rates
+34 bps
10Y median repricing

Steepening dominates whenever the shock originates in fiscal policy.

Currencies
+0.8%
Median haven bid, T+0

Concentrated in the first ninety minutes after the wire crosses.

Commodities
+4.8%
Median T+30 carry

The slowest to mean-revert across all five taxonomy branches.

Immediate terminal access

Review historical evidence before committing capital.

Stop trading based on qualitative narratives. Gain institutional access to forty years of parsed macro precedent data joined with tick-by-tick pricing curves.

Fig